An Assessment of Grain Food Security in Nigeria - 2006-2015.

This study evaluated the level of grain food security in Nigeria by examining the relationships among population growth, grain production, grain imports, grain exports, and grain demand between 2006 and 2015. A quantitative ex post facto research design was adopted using secondary time-series data obtained from the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and World Grain publications. Descriptive statistics and Pearson Product-Moment Correlation analysis were employed to assess the relationships among the selected variables. The findings revealed that Nigeria's population increased steadily throughout the study period, while grain production failed to keep pace with rising demand. Grain production exhibited weak negative correlations with grain imports (r = –0.40), grain exports (r = –0.20), and grain demand (r = –0.02), whereas population growth showed a moderate positive correlation with grain imports (r = 0.50), indicating increasing dependence on imported grains to satisfy domestic food demand. The study concludes that sustainable grain food security requires integrated policies that increase domestic grain production, strengthen strategic grain reserves, reduce postharvest losses, promote climate-resilient agriculture, and improve food security governance and agricultural value-chain development.